Tesla has been preparing to launch of its made-in-China Model Y at Gigafactory Shanghai in recent months. Tesla’s factory in Shanghai has undergone expansions in the past nine months alone, resulting in it doubling in size. The Model Y will be the second Tesla vehicle set for production in China and with this, an analyst is predicting Tesla’s sales could quadruple with a cheaper version.
Although Tesla did not reveal any planned production capacity of the madie-in-China Model Y, a new report from a local analyst stated that the California based EV maker could quadruple its sales in the country.
In a new note to clients, brokerage firm Tianfeng Securities believes that sales of the made-in-China Model Y have the potential to reach 30,000 units per month. “Tianfeng Securities also predicts that after mass production of China-made Model Y, monthly sales are expected to reach 30,000, and annual sales are expected to reach 360,000. It is estimated that Tesla’s overall sales will reach 880,000 in 2021, an increase of 76% year-on-year. And sales in 2022 will reach 1.28 million, an increase of 45% year-on-year.”
According to Tesla’s Q3 numbers, over 10,000 Model 3 units were delivered per month in China. In order to reach of volume of 30,000 units of the Model Y, Tesla would need to come up with a cheaper option.
When analyzing Tesla’s made-in-China Model 3 pricing, Tianfeng Securities determined that Tesla could lower the price of its Model Y in China to 275,000 yuan ($41,000 USD) should they continue to implement the price reduction strategy: “Tianfeng Securities released a research report that, from the perspective of Tesla‘s overseas pricing strategy, the price difference between Model Y and Model 3 is only 6-9%. Therefore, after Model Y is mass-produced in China, it is expected that Tesla will continue to implement the price reduction strategy. The entry price is expected to drop to 275,000 yuan.”
Currently there are only two trim options offered for the electric SUV with a less expensive rear-wheel-drive expected in the near future. According to vice president of Tesla China, Tao Lin, the Model Y is expected off the line of Gigafactory Shanghai in the first quarter of next year.