How Good Are the Analysts Covering Tesla?

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Wall Street focus has locked in on Tesla. Across the board, everyone has a view on Tesla’s success, assessing and rating its near-term prospects. But what about the analysts dishing out the ratings? How good are they?

One fintech company, TipRanks, has been monitoring and measuring the performance of thousands of Wall Street analysts publishing recommendations. The company calculates the success rate of these experts, or the number of their profitable recommendations measured over one year, in addition to the average return for each rating. Essentially, it rates the analysts.

Let’s take a look, then, at how some of the 27 analysts currently covering Tesla have performed when rating the most talked about company on the Street right now.

We’ll start off with the fans.

Argus Research’s Bill Selesky has a Buy rating on Tesla and recently raised his price target from $556 to $808. The analyst has a 56% overall success rate, along with a modest average return of 3.3% per rating. When it comes to Tesla, though, Selesky’s performance improves. His success rate on the stock mirrors his overall performance, with 67% of his calls showing a profit. His returns, though, are far more impressive, exhibiting a 41.6% return per Tesla call on average.

Oppenheimer’s Colin Rusch is another bull giving TSLA an Outperform rating, although his recently bumped up price target of $684 has already been surpassed by Musk and Co. As befits a 5-star analyst, Rusch has an impressive track record. Rusch ranks 96th amongst almost 6,000 analysts in the TipRanks database. His overall success rate of 56% is just shy of the 59% figure when rating Tesla specifically. His 115.4% average return per rating on Tesla, though, comes in considerably higher than his overall figure of 23%.

Now, let’s change sides and move on to the bears.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas thinks it’s time to Sell and has a price target of $360 in place.  The 4-star analyst has an overall success rate of 47%, a touch behind his 50% success rate when rating Tesla. His average profit of 28.2% on the EV pioneer, though, is almost four times higher than his overall average return of 7.4% per recommendation.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman also takes a bearish approach. The 4-star analyst’s overall success rate comes in at 63%, with an average return of 3.4% per rating. Brinkman’s performance on Tesla is much worse; only 40% of his ratings were profitable and have provided, on average, a return of -54%.

The Daddy Bear award, though, goes to GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson. The 1-star analyst has a Sell rating on Tesla to go along with his $44.52 price target. Clearly, Johnson is not a fan, as the figure indicates possible downside of a battery exploding 95%. Johnson, as it happens, has a high success rate when rating Tesla, with 71% of his calls playing out. His average return per rating, though, exhibits a loss of 38.5%. Overall, Johnson’s success rate hits the 54% mark, but yet again, his average overall returns remain negative, at 2.1%.

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